By: Ryan Melson (@RyanMelson1)
When this offseason began, it appeared as if the Cubs were not going to pursue an expensive starting pitcher like Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta. The Cubs front office changed their mind when they realized that the normal big spenders were going to be inactive and other teams were looking for an astronomical return for any young, cost-controlled starting pitcher. The slow free agent market aided the Cubs in landing Darvish. There have been many theories as to why this free agent market has been so slow, but there is a combination of factors that have contributed to the most drawn out free agency in Major League Baseball history. The Mega Free Agency Coming Next Offseason Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Charlie Blackburn, Andrew Miller, and Craig Kimbrel are all set to become free agents next offseason. Clayton Kershaw and David Price could possibly end up on the market if they opt out of their contracts, which they are likely to do. Players like Bryce Harper and Manny Machado rarely get to the free agent market. Both Harper and Machado will be 26 next offseason, and they are both franchise players. Each of them is likely to get a deal that is worth more than $350 million. That seismic commitment has given teams reasons to sit out this free agent period and the teams will hope they are lucky enough to win the bidding on Harper or Machado. While that seems like a steep financial commitment to one player, each of these players would help any organization get closer to a World Series championship. If Kershaw does opt out of his deal, which is likely, he will also have a very large market. Teams will be lining up to court players next off-season. The Luxury Tax Acting As A Hard Cap If a team’s payroll goes over $197 million for this coming season, they have to pay a luxury tax. For a first time offender, the team has to pay a 20 percent tax on every dollar over the $197 million threshold. The second time is 30 percent, and the third time is 50 percent. There are also surtaxes on this for how much a team goes over the luxury tax. If it is between $20 million and $40 million over the threshold, the tax is 12 percent on every dollar in this range. $40 million over is a 42.5 percent tax on every dollar spent over the $40 million. Teams try and stay out of paying the luxury tax, as it could quickly balloon the payroll for any organization. Some organizations can afford to consistently go over the luxury tax, but the teams are businesses and the business owners are smart with their money. With that being said, some organizations will pick and choose when they go into the luxury tax with their spending. Because of the free agent class next offseason, next year would be a year to go over the luxury tax if an organization was close to winning a World Series. Intelligent Front Offices With technology advancing, front offices throughout the league have become more attune to what it should cost for players with a specific WAR. Every front office follows a certain formula and all of these formulas are quite similar throughout the league. If player x is going to contribute a certain amount of WAR to a team, then player x’s value is quantified by that WAR. This is part of the reason why front offices will not overspend on free agents. Some small market teams, or teams that have not been as successful as others, may have to overspend on a free agent to court them to their team. In certain circumstances, teams may value a player higher because of what the player brings to the clubhouse, the organization, and the city. For the most part, these seem to be the only exceptions for overspending on a player with all of the advanced metrics in play. Collusion Among Owners? Some agents believe there is collusion among the owners in MLB to not give players contracts over a certain length of time and over a certain dollar amount. While there has only been one deal this offseason that is over three years long (and that was Yu Darvish’s signing with the Cubs), it seems far-fetched to believe that the all of the owners in MLB came together for the sake of not paying players more money. There have been many contracts that have ultimately burned teams. Those teams that have been burned by bad contracts are trying to avoid making that same mistake, and other teams have taken note not to make the mistakes of other teams. Rebuilding Teams Scott Boras believes that some organizations use the image of rebuilding their organization as a way to not acquire expensive free agents. Many teams are trying to follow the blueprint that the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros created when they both overhauled their organization. Boras is upset with the lack of movement in free agency. Boras does have a point that more teams seem to be “rebuilding” in 2018 than ever before. Maybe Boras is right and some teams are using the mirage of rebuilding as a way to not purchase expensive free agents. Maybe some teams are actually rebuilding in the way that the Cubs and Astros did. Maybe it is the 2019 free agent class that is making everyone want to sit out this free agency. What Is The Main Cause of This Slow Moving Free Agency? Quite frankly, free agency has moved so slowly this year because of a combination of these factors. Thankfully for the Cubs, this slow moving free agency allowed the Cubs to sign the best free agent starting pitcher on the market. There are incentives in Darvish’s contract that will allow him to make up to $24 million more dollars. Darvish is betting on himself to be the top tier pitcher that he has been most of his career. If he can stay healthy, Darvish is poised to have a major 2018 season atop the Cubs rotation.
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I called my dad this morning and we talked about the Cubs and how excited we were for the season to start (this is a normal occurrence). Pitchers and catchers report soon and we’re thrilled for baseball to enter back into our lives. We talked about how even without any additional moves this offseason, we still expect the Cubs to win the NL Central and be contenders in October. A couple hours later, I can say I am feeling pretty good about that prediction.
This afternoon I got a notification that I have been waiting to receive for months, “BREAKING: Yu Darvish to #Cubs, six year-deal in $150M range”. I knew having Ken Rosenthal’s tweets sent to my phone would come in clutch someday and today it finally did. Praise the Lord, we FINALLY got him. It turns out the deal is officially for six years at $126M with the possibility of reaching $150M if he wins multiple Cy Young awards, which I would not be opposed to. 6 years at $126M ends up being $21M AAV, which will keep the Cubs under the luxury tax threshold this year and shouldn’t have a huge impact on future free agent decisions (hello, Bryce Harper). Sure, fans are hesitant about the sixth year, but overall this is a fantastic deal for the Cubs for multiple reasons. The most obvious reason is that our starting rotation is stacked moving forward. In whatever order you want, we have Darvish, Jon Lester, Jose Quintana, Kyle Hendricks and Tyler Chatwood. That rotation has proven October performers, Cy Young potential, and reliable arms that will give you the innings you need to have a successful season-long campaign across the board. Who knows how great Chatwood can be now that he’s away from Coors Field, but if his career 2.57 ERA away from Denver is any indication, that is one heck of a 5th man. Another huge impact this has for the Cubs is on Mike Montgomery. Sure, Montgomery could be a solid 5th man, but he is much more valuable coming out of the bullpen. He will provide a consistent, reliable arm that can go multiple innings per outing and will ease the load for Pedro Strop, Carl Edwards and anyone else expected to come into the game late. He can also pick up a few starts if any of our pitchers get injured like last year, so he is still going to have an important role for the Cubs moving forward. There’s going to be a lot more information coming out about this signing as the day goes on, but this much is clear; Theo Epstein has once again proved why he is the greatest GM in baseball, if not all of sports. He didn’t freak out and offer Darvish too much money when the Brewers knocked the world off its axis by bringing in Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain on the same day. He didn’t trade away any of our talented position players that have already proven to be successful everyday starters. He made the offer that he felt was best for Darvish, and he got his guy. It’ll be a competitive season in the NL Central and the National League in general, but I feel very good with where the Cubs are. The mere thought of Quintana and Hendricks as our potential 3-4 starters has me laughing out loud, and I really cannot wait for this season to get underway. Welcome home, Yu Darvish. We’ve been waiting for this day and it’s as glorious as I imagined. By: Ryan Melson (@RyanMelson1)
Even though it is February, it is time to Fly the W Cub fans. With pitchers and catchers reporting this week, the Cubs will have another new face: Yu Darvish. The 31 year old Darvish was the best starting pitcher on the free agent market. Darvish’s contract appears to be 6 years, $126 million, with escalators that could bring the deal as high as $150 million over the 6 year span. The $21 million annual average value does not preclude the Cubs from spending big in free agency next offseason. The Cubs were rumored to have $30 to $35 million left in the budget this offseason before the Darvish signing, so they still have flexibility to make an in-season acquisition. The Dodgers Were not able to offer Darvish a qualifying offer because Darvish was traded from the Texas Rangers to the Dodgers, so the Cubs are not penalized in the draft and international free agency. This has significant implications because if the Dodgers had been able to offer Darvish a qualifying offer and the Cubs signed him, the Cubs would have lost a second and fifth round draft pick, plus $1 million in the international free agent market. With the Dodgers not able to give a qualifying offer to Darvish, the Cubs will be able to rebuild their minor league system. When Jake Arrieta signs with a team this offseason, the Cubs will land an additional second round pick, further bolstering the farm system. How does Darvish’s deal stack up with other contracts for starting pitchers? Jon Lester received a 6 year, $155 million deal from the Cubs after the 2014 season ended. When the Cubs signed Jon Lester, he was 30 years old. Johnny Cueto received a 6 year, $130 million dollar deal from the Giants after the 2015 season. Cueto was 29 years old when he received this deal. In an offseason with few suitors on the market, especially the big market teams like the Yankees and Dodgers, the Cubs were able to get Darvish for a bargain. The best part about Darvish’s deal is that the Cubs have not given up any talent on the MLB roster, nor did they need to tap into the depleted minor league system. The Cubs have a plethora of young, cost-controlled hitting talent on the Major League roster, while they have young, cost-controlled pitchers developing in the minor leagues. If the Cubs need to make a trade to bolster this team at the trade deadline, the Cubs have plenty of assets to do so. For the 2018 season, the Cubs rotation will include Jon Lester, Yu Darvish, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, and Tyler Chatwood (Is anyone else drooling?). When the Cubs won the World Series in 2016, the starting rotation was Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks, John Lackey, and Jason Hammel. If you compare the rotations on paper, it is hard not to argue that this rotation for 2018 looks much better. The Cubs rotation is in tact for at least the next three seasons. This continuity in the starting rotation will only bode well for this organization. There is no longer a glaring need in this starting rotation, and now the front office can focus on fine tuning this roster throughout the year. Get ready Cub fans, Theo and company just assembled another roster that looks to be World Series favorites on paper. By: Ryan Melson (@RyanMelson1)
November 2nd, 2016 is a day that Cub fans will always remember. Cub fans will remember the tears of joy running down their face. They will remember the first person they called to scream unintelligible words. They will remember the sheer pleasure of watching their heroes celebrate into the night. They will remember what this night meant to their grandparents, parents, other family members, and dearest friends. Cub fans will also never forget how game 7 started. As usual, Dexter Fowler led off the game for the Cubs and he had to face the intimidating Cleveland Indians ace Corey Kluber. Before anyone could settle into their chair for the game, Dexter already had the Cubs up 1-0 with a leadoff homerun. Dexter set the tone as the leadoff hitter and centerfielder, with Manager Joe Maddon telling Dexter before each game “You Go, We Go.” In his last game as a Cub, Dexter had three hits and helped propel the Cubs to a place they had not been in 108 years. In his two years in Chicago, Fowler was a fan favorite, a clubhouse leader, and the ultimate table setter. However, after the World Series Championship in 2016, the Cubs decided to let Fowler walk in free agency. Fowler signed a five year, $82.5 million dollar deal with the St. Louis Cardinals. In 2017, the Cubs decided to put their faith in Albert Almora Jr., the former 2012 first round pick. Additionally, the Cubs signed Jon Jay in free agency to platoon with Almora for the 2017 season. The emergence of Ian Happ shrunk playing time even more between the three players. In the 2017 playoffs, Jay was given the nod as the starting centerfielder, leaving Almora and Happ on the bench. While the centerfield position seemed to have more depth than in previous years, there was something seemingly missing in 2017 that had been there in 2015 and 2016. While the Cubs have incredibly talented players who can play centerfield, the void of Dexter Fowler still lingers. Despite having a solid 2017 season, the Cubs did not sign Jay back for the 2018 season. The Cubs appear to be poised to move forward with a centerfield platoon of Albert Almora Jr. and Ian Happ for the 2018 season. Between Almora and Happ, who should get the majority of innings in centerfield for the 2018 Cubs? The Case For Albert Almora Jr. When Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer, and Jason McLeod came to the Cubs, the first player they selected in the draft was a high school phenom from Florida. Coming out of high school, it did not take Almora long to start hitting. Almora’s defense was something that was unquestioned, and some compared Almora to some of the greatest defensive centerfielders in Major League Baseball history. After a quick start hitting in the lower minor leagues, Almora looked to be headed towards the clubhouse at Clark and Addison very quickly. Injuries delayed this process, and stunted Almora’s rapid growth. In 2016, Almora finally got his chance at the big league level, albeit in limited time. Almora immediately made an impact defensively, making multiple sensational plays in Philadelphia during his debut. It appeared as if the Cubs had their heir apparent to Dexter Fowler. In a small sample size during the championship season, Almora had a .277 batting average and .308 on-base percentage in 112 at-bats. This gave Almora a slight edge over Dexter Fowler’s .276 batting average in 2016. However, Almora was nowhere close to Dexter’s .393 on-base percentage. Despite the small sample size, this lack of a high on-base percentage was consistent with Almora’s minor league production. Simply put: Almora did not take walks, whereas Fowler did. Jumping forward to 2017, the Cubs hoped Almora would develop into a more polished hitter by taking more walks. Almora’s on-base percentage did increase 30 points to .338 in 2017. Almora’s walks nearly quadrupled, but his plate appearances tripled from the previous season. The statistics are misleading with Almora because his walk rate really did not increase in 2017. What propelled Almora’s jump in on-base percentage was his batting average, which jumped from .277 to .298. Almora has always been a player who will hit for a high batting average, but he will probably not take many walks with his aggressive style at the plate. If Almora continues the trend of not taking walks and being aggressive early in the count, then he will likely not be a viable candidate to lead-off. Almora took a step back defensively in 2017. Almora did not have the benefit of consistent playing time, but he was not the defensive force Cub fans have dreamed of since he was drafted. With that being said, Almora was really good defensively and better than Fowler in 2015 and 2016. The expectation is that Almora would be elite with the glove, not just good. Going forward in 2018, Almora appears to be dialed in at winning the centerfield position. He arrived at the Cubs Convention this winter noticeably leaner. If Almora can get back to his defensive prowess the front office envisioned when he was drafted, while also maintaining a high batting average, Almora can expect increased playing time in 2018. The Case For Ian Happ Ian Happ burst onto the scene in 2017. There were high expectations for the former 2015 first round pick, but Happ made his debut quicker than anticipated. Happ did not disappoint in his debut. Facing the arch-rival Cardinals in St. Louis, Happ quickly gave Cardinal fans another Cubs player to hate. Happ launched a homerun against the Cardinals, quickly showing he was not going to be sent back down to the minors. In 364 at-bats, Happ went on to hit 24 homers and drove in 68 runs for the big league club. Between the minors and majors in 2017, Happ combined for 33 homeruns and he drove in 93 runs over the course of 468 at bats. Happ showed the ability to draw walks and his .328 OBP demonstrates that ability. With the ability to draw walks and work counts, the switch-hitting Happ could be a legitimate lead-off hitter, who provides the power and patience that George Springer of the Houston Astros annually demonstrates. The 2017 regular season gave Cubs fans a glimpse of a player who has legitimate superstar potential on a team filled with superstars. The only blemish for Happ is that centerfield is not his natural position. In college and the majority of his time in the minor leagues, Happ played second base. Starting at second base is not an option for Happ, since Javier Baez and Ben Zobrist will occupy the vast majority of innings this season. Joe Maddon knew Happ’s bat was too good to leave on the bench, so he moved the athletic Happ to centerfield. At times, Happ looked like he had played centerfield his whole career, but, at other times, he looked like he had never played the position. If Happ can improve on his centerfield defense in 2018, even if it is to the average level that Dexter Fowler played defense, and maintain his impressive hitting ability, then Ian Happ could be a superstar centerfielder. Will The Cubs Find Fowler’s Successor in 2018? Dexter Fowler’s presence in centerfield and the leadoff role will always be missed. Even if Dexter was only here for two seasons, there was something about him that helped create the “Cubs Way.” Albert Almora Jr. and Ian Happ are players who will only get better with time, since both are still so young and have so much untapped potential. At this point, either Almora Jr. or Happ could take that next step and fill that void Dexter Fowler left when he signed with the Cardinals. Whoever advances sooner in their development will see more playing time than the other. By: Ryan Melson (@RyanMelson1)
Pitchers and catchers report in ten days for our beloved Chicago Cubs. There is mass excitement around this 2018 Cubs team, as they fell just short of delivering back-to-back World Series championships last season. With one of the most talented rosters in baseball, the Cubs are poised for another World Series run. The young hitters are in a position to take a major leap forward because they are another year older and they have hitting guru Chili Davis in place as the new hitting coach (The bleacher bum in me is looking forward to the additional home run balls that will be floating in the bleachers this season, but I digress). Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer have built a stable full of hitters, and the 2018 success will correlate with the development of this young hitting. However, one area of this team that is not quite settled is the pitching staff, specifically the starting rotation. As of right now, the Cubs starting rotation includes Jon Lester, Jose Quintana, Kyle Hendricks, Tyler Chatwood, and Mike Montgomery. Roughly two-thirds of the teams in Major League Baseball would drool over having this rotation, but the Cubs are seeking to upgrade their rotation because they are roughly $30 to $35 million dollars under the luxury tax penalty, Theo Epstein believes the Cubs are in the midst of another championship window, and this free agency is a buyer’s market. With spring training quickly approaching and the amount of free agents still available, there will be a flurry of activity over the next few weeks. Taking a look at the remaining free agents, lets look at who may be the best addition to this Cubs rotation in 2018. The belle of this free agency is Yu Darvish. While Darvish struggled in the postseason last October, he is still capable of being the best pitcher in a starting rotation. There have been reports out this week about how much money Darvish is actually seeking. Apparently, Darvish could be looking for a deal that is close to seven years, $175 million dollars. At that price, the 31 year old Darvish would be unrealistic for the Cubs. The Cubs apparently have been willing to go as high as 4 years, $110 million. Other teams value Darvish at the same price the Cubs have, but Darvish’s camp is holding out for a desperate team to pay a little more. The Cubs would likely be able to land Darvish by sweetening the offer to five years, $137.5 million, with a club option for a sixth year. While this may seem to be a reach for a player who is 31, Darvish’s impact could swing the power pendulum back in the Cubs favor in the National League. However, MLB front offices have become very fearful of handing out these major contracts to a pitcher who is over 30, causing a potential clash between the MLBPA and the MLB. Darvish would give the Cubs starting rotation stability and depth for the next several years. Delivering a World Series, winning a Cy Young, throwing no hitters against the Dodgers and the Reds, and making Pilates acceptable for guys, Jake Arrieta’s contributions to the Chicago Cubs will never be forgotten by Cub fans. While Cub fans would really enjoy a return from the once dominant Arrieta, the price needs to be right for this to occur. At the beginning of this offseason, Arrieta was looking to cash in on a deal over $200 million dollars. With no market at that price tag, more teams have been willing to enter into negotiations with Arrieta. Outside of the Cubs, the Brewers, Cardinals, and Twins appear to be the most aggressive suitors for Arrieta. The Brewers and Cardinals appear to be driving the price up on Arrieta, just as the Cubs have frequently employed this strategy to make the Cardinals and Brewers pay more for free agents. As is the case with Darvish, the Cubs would love Arrieta at the right price. It has been rumored the Cubs have offered Arrieta the same 4 years, $110 million they did for Darvish. Arrieta and Darvish are the same age, but Arrieta’s fastball took a noticeable dip last year, where he consistently threw 91 and 92 mph. On the other hand, Darvish was consistently in the mid-90’s on his fastball. A reunion with Arrieta would be phenomenal to many Cub fans, but he is a pitcher who is on the decline from the stature we have come to know and love. Another nice starting pitcher the Cubs could acquire is Alex Cobb. The former Tampa Bay Ray has the familiarity with Joe Maddon and new pitching coach Jim Hickey. When the offseason started an eternity ago, it seemed that the Cubs and Cobb would quickly strike a deal. Apparently, Cobb’s asking price soared up to the $18 to $20 million dollar range per year, over a five year period. This asking price differed from Cobb’s original perceived market of $12 to $14 million per year, over a three year period. If Cobb’s price does come down to the original perceived range, expect the Cubs to strike quickly. Signing Cobb at the price the Cubs want would give the Cubs additional flexibility this offseason to go after other complementary pieces if they choose, there would be plenty of room for in-season acquisitions, and would give this organization a little extra cash on hand for the ultimate free agent class in 2019 (please sign with the Cubs, Bryce). There are multiple other options the Cubs could explore. They could venture into signing Lance Lynn. The Cubs have checked in with Lynn’s camp, but they do not seem to be to wild on the prospect of adding Lynn. The Cubs could attempt to trade for a young, high profile pitcher, with years of team control. That would be very complicated and highly unlikely, since it seems the Cubs will not move any of the young hitting talent currently on the roster. The Cubs could also trade for a buy low starting pitcher and hope that Hickey and company rehabilitates the stock of that pitcher, like former Cubs pitching coach Chris Bosio was able to do so many times throughout his tenure in Chicago. Or the Cubs could stick with Montgomery as their fifth starter if the prices of the remaining free agent pitchers continues to be out of touch with the actual market. Free agency and spring training will be crossing paths this month. This brings more anticipation for a new addition to the starting rotation in Mesa, Arizona in ten days when the Cubs pitchers and catchers report to Sloan Park. |
Kyle MalzhanFounder who is an aspiring journalist who covers the Chicago Cubs daily. Archives
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