By: Ryan Melson (@RyanMelson1)
As we sit about six weeks into the season, I am scratching my head trying to figure out who Tyler Chatwood is as a pitcher. At times, I am watching a guy with ace potential. His 3.35 ERA this season looks awfully nice coming from the fifth spot in the rotation. Other times, I am watching a guy who cannot hit the strike zone. Chatwood can cruise through the game for five straight hitters without anyone making hard contact, then he will walk the next two batters on eight straight pitches. The wildness of Chatwood is quite alarming. Through 37.2 innings, Chatwood has 32 walks. Chatwood’s 32 walks leads Major League Baseball. He is on pace for 135 plus walks this season, which would shatter his career high 77 walks in 2017. Let’s hope Chatwood is not trying to chase Nolan Ryan’s 157 walks in 1972. Despite Chatwood walking nearly a hitter an inning, hitters are having a difficult time getting hits off of him. Chatwood has allowed 26 hits this season, which is less than the amount of walks he has issued. Currently, Chatwood has his highest WHIP (walk-hits per innings pitched) since his first two seasons in the league. The only reason his WHIP is high is because the amount of walks he has issued. Justin Verlander has allowed the least amount of hits per 9 innings this season at 4.528. Corey Kluber has allowed the eighth least hits per 9 innings at 5.7. Chatwood’s 6.3 hits allowed per 9 is not far off from Kluber. Hits per 9 innings shows how dominant a pitcher is over a hitter. Chatwood has done a very nice job of limiting the amount of hits off of him. Another promising stat is Chatwood’s strikeout rate. Chatwood is striking out 9.08 hitters per nine innings, averaging more strikeouts than innings pitched. His 38 strikeouts so far this season has put him on pace for 160 plus strikeouts and leads the Cubs starting staff right now. To put what Chatwood is doing in context, Jake Arrieta’s strikeout per nine innings in 2016 and 2017 were 8.7. Arrieta has only 5.8 strikeouts per nine this season, so Chatwood has been better overpowering hitters better than Arrieta this season. The most strikeouts Chatwood had in a season came last year with the Rockies and he had 120. Chatwood’s strikeout numbers are on the rise. Not only does that say Chatwood is understanding his wicked arsenal of pitchers better, he does have overpowering pitches that can strikeout hitters. The trend of Chatwood’s strikeouts are not surprising when you watch the movement on his pitches and the amount of velocity on his fastball. Chatwood’s ground ball percentage is actually lower than it has been in years past. This season, Chatwood has a 51.7% ground ball percentage when hitters make contact. In 2017, Chatwood had a 58.1% ground ball percentage. Chatwood’s career ground ball percentage is 54.6%. If Chatwood continues to get more ground balls for the Cubs infield and he continues his magnificent strikeout rate, Chatwood could be poised for his best season in MLB, despite the walks. Chatwood is on pace for his best WAR season since he came into the league, but is walking people at this rate sustainable? Traditional logic says no, but Chatwood’s first seven starts continue to prove me wrong. If Chatwood can get his walks under control, then he could become much more dominant than he has been because his strikeout rates are high, his groundball rate will be more frequent, and the Cubs infield behind him is outstanding.
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Kyle MalzhanFounder who is an aspiring journalist who covers the Chicago Cubs daily. Archives
April 2020
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