There were numerous topics discussed during the periscope following the Cubs victory over the Rays Tuesday night. The one that stuck out to me most was when a viewer asked if the Cubs should pay Wade Davis or go for starting pitching this offseason.
While the starting rotation for the Cubs have had a very solid second half of the season, there are many questions lingering this off-season. Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks and Jose Quintana are all going to be back next year, and that is a great three-man rotation, but that’s it for now. Mike Montgomery may work his way into the rotation as a solid 4th or 5th man, but that still leaves at least one spot open. John Lackey’s contract is up following this season and I don’t see the Cubs resigning the 38 year-old. Lackey had a much better second half to the season, but this is the best-case scenario for him moving forward and finding an affordable replacement should not be difficult. Jake Arrieta also becomes a free agent after this season, and his situation intrigues me. While his agent, Scott Boras, thinks that Jake is deserving of a $200 million contract, nobody is going to pay that much for a 31 year-old pitcher two years removed from his prime. Jake is probably going to receive a contract that pays him around $25 million annually and will likely be a comparable contract to Johnny Cueto or Jon Lester, which I doubt the Cubs are willing to offer. With Lackey and Arrieta likely gone, the Cubs are going to need to sign at least one solid starting pitcher. I don’t see the Cubs signing a Yu Darvish, but I could see them getting someone like Alex Cobb, a very solid pitcher that should be affordable. So the Cubs need to sign at least one starter through free agency. What does that mean for Wade Davis? Davis is a freak of nature that the Cubs somehow got straight up for Jorge Soler. Thank you Jorge for your heroics during the 2015 NLDS and for Wade Davis. Through September 20th, Wade Davis is a perfect 32 for 32 with save opportunities. Kenley Jansen of the Dodgers is the only closer with as many starts as Davis that has posted similar numbers, as he has only blown one save over 39 opportunities. Kenley Jansen recently inked a 5-year $80 million contract, has a 1.27 ERA, an absurd 14.4 K/BB, and opponents have an abysmal .173 batting average when he’s on the mound. For comparison, Davis has a 2.01 ERA, a 2.5 K/BB while his opponents are hitting .170 against him. While Jensen has better numbers overall, Davis is going to get PAID this off-season. Frankly, I don’t want the Cubs to be the ones paying him. Wade Davis has been a force all year and actually had a better first half than second half. His ERA through the All-Star game was a 1.80, nearly half a run better than his second half ERA of 2.28. While his opponents bating average has remained nearly the same, his K/9 has dropped from 1.43 to .99 while his BB/9 has risen from .4 to .69. These are still respectable numbers and the walks haven’t impacted his ability to get saves, but he was better in the first half than the second half. The opposite is true for the Cubs. I’m not saying that Wade Davis being elite doesn’t help the Cubs. What I’m saying is that he was actually better the first half of the year and they were two games under .500 at the break. The Cubs struggled the first half of the year for many reasons, but their biggest problem was their starting rotation. They didn’t have a solidified 5th starter, Jake Arrieta was slumping, John Lackey was terrible, Kyle Hendricks was hurt and Jon Lester was decent. They have all have done substantially better in the second half and naturally the Cubs are in first place in the division. Losing Wade Davis will be a blow to this team, there’s no denying that. Having guys like Carl Edwards Jr. and Pedro Strop will help keep the bullpen solid while Dillon Maples may be a nice addition out of the pen as well. If the Cubs let Arrieta and Lackey walk as expected, they have to make a move to help the rotation. Lester, Hendricks, Quintana and a possible Montgomery at 4 or 5 is a good start, but there needs to be more. Doesn’t have to be huge, doesn’t have to be an ace, but it has to be someone we can rely on every five games. Thank you Wade Davis for being perfect throughout the season, but if the Cubs want to make it back to the postseason, they’ll have to pay for depth out of the starting rotation.
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With only 11 games remaining in the 2017 campaign, the Chicago Cubs have achieved an 84-67 win-loss record. They are projected to finish the season with over 90 victories, yet many fans have given up by labeling the Cubs season as a “down year”. Sure their past two seasons have seemed more magical than this year, but that shouldn’t take away from the fact that they are in the midst of a 90 plus win season. This is what we’ve been waiting for, a team that is consistently collecting wins and making the playoffs.
Fans have every right to be critical of their team, but only when it’s deserved. Maybe this season doesn’t have the same feel as 2015 or 2016 because of injuries, or the fact that last year the Cubs accomplished the highest possible achievement in baseball, a World Series title. This team has certainty come a long way from their 101 loss season five years ago, and with no doubt the bar has been raised. However, I think after the joy the Cubs have provided us the past two years they deserve a little slack. Although anything is possible, it isn’t likely the Cubs are going to miss the playoffs this year, which for any other team would be reason to celebrate. As humans, and especially baseball fans we have the tendency to over react when things don’t go exactly as planned. This season may be a perfect example of that, and even though the Cubs aren’t exactly demolishing every team they face, there’s still a good amount of positives to reflect on from this season. As mentioned, the Cubs are on the verge of winning over 90 games and adding another division title to their track record, reaffirming their elite status as a club. Not only that but they made history. Ian Happ’s HR on August 30th broke the MLB single season record for number of players with 20 or more homeruns on a team. Fans may have become accustomed to being a part of history, but this only adds to it. Regardless of the record, Happ’s emergence as an impact player on this team should excite people. Along the same lines, in only his second season with the big league club, Willson Contreras has taken the league by storm. He has established himself as a top catcher in the game, and is consistently showing the ability to improve with the bat and behind the plate. Like Contreras and Happ, infielder Javier Baez has made his name known league wide by following up a tremendous playoff performance with a great season. He too has shown the willingness and discipline to become a better player. After Addison Russell went down with a foot injury, Baez was thrown right into being an everyday shortstop. After a bumpy start he settled in with confidence and began delivering a steady flow of highlight reel plays, in addition to making the routine ones. Manager Joe Maddon, and fans a like should feel reassurance knowing they have two premier shortstops manning the middle infield. I know it’s been said time and time again, but this team is going to be good for a very long time. It’s important to appreciate the fact that we get to enjoy a great team, with great players, and great personalities before the dream ends. I admit, at times it’s been frustrating watching this team play, but everyday is a new day and the best thing to do is sit back, enjoy the ride, and gear up for the best time of the year, playoff baseball. By Ryan Anthony Dreyer
Twitter: @Secad0ra ----- Kyle Schwarber is better suited to be a DH in the American League. There, I said it. And considering he's currently my favorite Cub, it pains me to admit that on more than one occasion I've wondered what Theo could get in return for him. It's OK if you've thought about it too. Most of us already have. But there's something about envisioning him in a different uniform that makes my skin crawl. And this is the enigma that is Schwarber. One day I'm in awe of his Hafþór Júlíus Björnsson-like strength and the next I'm glaring at the TV after he swings through a fastball that could only have been a strike if he were 8 feet tall. So how do we make sense of it all? Often times, when a player bursts onto the scene as spectacularly as Schwarber did in 2015, it's easy to get caught up in the excitement. I know I did. After being called up he went on to hit .333/.401/.539 with 3 HRs and 12 RBIs in his first 67 at bats. Add to that his career postseason slash line of .364/.451/.727 with 10 RBIs and 5 HRs in 14 games and his improbable World Series heroics and the next thing you know we're placing him on the type of pedastle normally reserved for Greek Gods. Fair or not, this is now what we've come to expect of Schwarber; the exceptional, the otherworldly. And while we see flashes of this, we've yet to see it on a consistent basis. After his torrid start to 2015, he came crashing down to earth with a line of .216/.346/.390 in the months of August, September and early October. This year, his struggles at the plate resulting in a line of .208/.314/4.63 have been discussed ad nauseam. And then there's his glove. Defensively, his fielding percentage of .965 ranks him 184th amongst qualifying left fielders and his 5 errors are 5th worst in the league. Hs route efficiency is rarely high and he's not in any danger of being described as fleet of foot. But this is nothing most Cubs fans didn't already know. When he was drafted the scouting report was abundantly clear; his defense was subpar but his bat was good enough to keep him in the lineup. In 2015, MLB.com columnist Bernie Pleskoff wrote, "Overall he's slow. This makes outfield defense a challenge as well. He has enough arm strength to play the outfield but he still looks like a catcher wherever he plays. In an ideal world, at this point in his development, Schwarber projects as a dynamic designated hitter. That position is unavailable to him in the National League." Pleskoff would also go on to add, "He's an offensive player. As a result, if he goes into an offensive tailspin, his value diminishes." Two years later, everything Pleskoff wrote rings true (except his prediction of Schwarber hitting for a high average) and that includes the positives. In fact, you could argue that the good outweighs the bad. Schwarber is indeed a threat to change the outlook of a game with one swing. That kind of skillset is immensely valuable and should not be overlooked. If the Cubs are down to their final out, losing by 4 with the bases loaded, who else would you want at the plate besides Schwarber? Asked to describe him in one word, Pleskoff wrote, "impactful" which is the perfect adjective to use. And let's not forget, he's only 24 years old so there's plenty of room for growth not only as a fielder but a hitter as well. On the other hand, with MLB currently experiencing a home run renaissance, you could argue that power hitters aren't as rare anymore. The league as a whole just set a new single-season record for home runs and is on pace to hit the 6,000 mark for the first time in it's history. Of course, we've seen the conspiracy theorists crawl out from under the woodwork, claiming that the league is using juiced baseballs. Personally, I think that's ridiculous (although I encourage you to read up on it and come to your own conclusion). Nevertheless, we already knew Schwarber was capable of sending baseballs onto the top of scoreboards (I just got goosebumps watching that) so, in my opinion, none of this lessens his dynamic power. But when judging a player's value, sometimes you have to go beyond the obvious and forget the stats. I would be remiss if I didn't mention how much he's loved in the clubhouse, how hard he plays, and how he's willing to run through (or over) a wall for his team. And then there's his tireless charity work. Schwarber started a campaign he calls "Neighborhood Heroes", which raised $300,000 for first responders. This is a man who truly understands what's important in life. This is the kind of guy you want dating your daughter. No matter what transpires from here on out, I will forever be grateful to Schwarber because without him, the Cubs don't win their first World Series in 108 years. There's simply no debating that. And still, Kyle Schwarber is better suited to be a DH in the American League. Maybe it's time for Theo to explore that option. I hate myself for saying that. It’s 2017 and things in the NL Central are different than they were a few years ago. The Cubs have won 200 games over the last two seasons and are currently in first place by 4 games over the Brewers as the season nears its end. They have the most talented roster in the division and the results over the last two and a half years have proven it. The Cardinals and Cubs are both talented in their own right and have a plethora of players that are household names throughout baseball. For the Cardinals, you have three time All Star Matt Carpenter, an impressive pitching core lead by Carlos Martinez, and the inarguable anchor of the team, future Hall of Famer Yadier Molina.
The Cardinals have been very successful over the greater half of a decade by building around these center pieces with young talented players like Aledmys Diez and certified Cubs-killer Randal Grichuk, while signing beloved former Cub Dexter Fowler following the 2016 season. The Cubs have built themselves around a young core that continues to pump out talented position players year after year. One of the most exciting players that made it to the show last year was someone that wasn’t on the radar of many at the beginning of the year, Willson Contreras. While Willson has only played 183 games in the majors since getting moved up in 2016, he has already established himself as the sparkplug for this team, a threat to pick off any base runner, and a dangerous man out of the cleanup spot. Willson is a fan favorite in Chicago, and it won’t be long until he is widely considered as a top tier catcher in professional baseball. To anyone that’s been paying attention, however, he’s already there. It’s 2017, and Willson Contreras is better than Yadier Molina. Yes, I know what I said. Willson Contreras is better than Yadier Molina. The same Yadier Molina that is a career .284 hitter, eight time consecutive Gold Glove winner, eight time All-Star and two-time World Series Champion. I’m not crazy and I’m not wrong if you take a deeper look into the stats. Molina is a phenomenal contact hitter, as his career batting average is 4 points higher than Contreras despite this being his 14th professional season. He also still has a canon for an arm, as his caught stealing percentage is .369, good for 6th in all of baseball. The fact that he is able to do this consistently while being 35 years old is incredible and I don’t respect anyone on the Cardinals more than I respect Yadier Molina. Willson Contreras is still better. In his short tenure as the Cubs starting catcher, Contreras has a career OPS of .861. His .872 OPS ranking for the 2017 season ranks third among major league catchers that have at least 200 at bats, only trailing Gary Sanchez and Robinson Chirinos. Yadier Molina is 17th on the same list. Yadi has a career OPS of .739 and only once had an OPS higher than Willson’s this year, and that was in 2012, his best offensive season in his 13 year career. In that season, Yadi had an OBP of .373 and hit 22 home runs in 563 plate appearances. This year, Willson got off to a bit of a slow start, battled some injuries, and is still posting .355 OBP and has 21 home runs…in 170 LESS plate appearances than Yadi in 2012. Power isn’t everything; you still have to be able to get on base and produce runs for your team. Yadi has the edge in OBP by 18 points, but that’s it. Willson already has 73 RBI’s compared to Yadi’s 75 from 2012, and remember how many more opportunities Yadi had than Willson. If you look at the WAR from 2012, it’s a very impressive 6.1. Willson only has a 3.2 this year, which is expected when you miss as much time as he did. 3.2 isn’t even close to 6.1 in the stat that really shows whose the better player though, so how can Willson be better? Let’s remember something here. Willson Contreras is 25 years old and is already posting numbers similar to the career bests of a catcher who that will likely end up in Cooperstown. In Yadier Molina’s age 25 season (2007), he had a respectable 1.4 WAR, had an OBP of .340, an OPS of .708, and a mere 6 home runs. Contreras is destroying all those numbers this year and he continues to improve. It took Yadier Molina six seasons to get where Willson Contreras is when it comes to WAR and nine seasons to put up better offensive numbers. He was a seasoned veteran at both of those points when Willson is still learning all the ropes to the game and how to control his emotions. For where he’s at this stage in his career and for this current year, however, it is undeniable. Willson Contreras is better than Yadier Molina. Only time will tell what Willson’s legacy will be. Maybe he’ll go on to win numerous gold gloves and World Series like Yadi. Maybe he’ll fizzle out and this will be a short-lived high point of his career. Nobody knows. One thing that anyone can tell just by looking at the numbers from when Yadi was 25 and from right now, the truth is clear. The best catcher in the NL Central resides in the north side of Chicago and it’s likely going to stay that way for a long time. Nothing but respect for Yadier Molina, but the baton has officially been passed. The Cubs beat the Rays 2-1 Tuesday night behind a solo shot from the DH Kyle Schwarber, a RBI double from Javier Baez, and yet another stellar outing from Mike Montgomery. The tall lefty carried a no-hitter into the 6th inning, and left after surrendering a home-run to Rays second baseman Brad Miller. In fact, Miller's home-run would be the only hit the Rays got all night.
With playoff baseball right around the corner classic debates about lineups and rotations will be had. The whispers about Mike Montgomery becoming a permanent pitcher in the rotation are only going to get louder the closer it gets to October, and the more solid outings he has. Although, with Jake Arrieta returning to the bump Thursday against the Brewers, Montgomery will likely find himself back in the bullpen for the remainder of the year. With the way the Cubs starting pitchers have flourished in the second half of the season it may be a bit of a stretch to say Montgomery has earned a starter spot come the post-season. Even though he stepped up big this year, playoff baseball is a different animal and demands cream of the crop relief pitching, which Montgomery provides. It's important to remember just how good Montgomery is in a bullpen role, after all he did close out game 7 of the World Series. However, that's not to say Mike Montgomery won't eventually find himself a permanent spot in the rotation. With Arrieta being a free agent at the end of the year, and John Lackey most-likley at the end of his career the Cubs are going to need to find starting pitching. Of course there's always the possibility of re-signing Arrieta or getting another big arm through free agency, but Mongomery provides a cheap in house option. His free agent year isn't until 2022, and he's only 28 years of age. Now, Montgomery isn't a top of the rotation guy, but he can be a very good four or five, especially if he works towards becoming a starter in the off-season. Who knows what Theo, Jed, and Maddon have up their sleeves, but inserting Montgomery into the future starting rotation should definitely be discussed. What's important now is for the Cubs offense to continue mashing baseballs, and for their pitchers to stack up quality starts. Two short weeks until October baseball is back on the north side, and the Cubs have shown they are poised to make another deep run. The Chicago Cubs look to keep their winning streak alive as they begin a two game series in Tampa Bay today. Coming off of their biggest series of the year, they return to action a day after sweeping the St. Louis Cardinals over the weekend. Barring any late season drama, last weekend may prove to be their signature moment for 2017. From their offense to their starting pitching and bullpen, the Cubs were firing on all cylinders.
Perhaps the most exciting of the three games was the final one, in which the Cubs won in a 4-3 nail biter. After Sunday's win, manager Joe Maddon had this to say, "just an intense, intense baseball game." He also praised his bullpen saying, "fortunately, we got to win it. Give our bullpen credit. These guys are on fumes." Maddon was forced to tap into his bullpen arms a little earlier than he would have liked. In the series opener, starter John Lackey was ejected early. This began a trickle down affect that led to closer Wade Davis pitching in all three games. Davis notched his 31st save of the year after a loud, deep, and nerve wracking fly ball off the bat of Dexter Fowler was caught on the warning track. Everyone in the park, including Wade Davis, thought it was gone. "I thought it was going off the scoreboard," explained Davis. "I thought it was for sure gone. I looked over at the third-base dugout and saw the fans yelling, I was like, 'Oh, thank goodness." The Cubs secured their 83rd victory of 2017, while reducing their magic number to 10 to go to the playoffs for the third straight year. Everyone was involved over the weekend sweep and everyone shared in the glory. There is a long list of positives to go over from the weekend series, starting here: Addison Russell: After being out so long with a foot injury, and the dazzling play of Javy Baez at short-stop, many people forgot about Russell. Essentially, Russell was thrown right into the action without playing a simulated game or even a rehab assignment. He did not disappoint, by playing stellar defense in the field, and astonishingly reaching base in every plate appearance. Including a pinch hit home run and three walks. His success down the road is crucial to a deep playoff run for the Cubs. Albert Almora Jr.: Over the past two months, Almora has really showcased his ability. The more he plays the more he impresses. Over the past four games he knocked in 10 RBIs and has continued his gold glove caliber defense. Maddon showed his confidence in Almora by giving him the start against a top arm in Lance Lynn. As games become more important down the road and into the playoffs, Maddon should feel comfortable playing Almora in big games. Wade Davis: At this point not much should surprise fans about Wade Davis as he is only a couple weeks from accomplishing a perfect save record. However, Davis reminded everyone how dominant he is by notching three saves over the weekend, including a four out outing on Friday. His durability, efficiency, and excellence has been huge all year for the Cubs. The weekend series against the red birds only reaffirmed his importance to the club. Overall, the Cubs picked the perfect time to play their best baseball of the year. From the offense scoring a plethora of runs, to the starting pitching and bullpen dominating opponents, no club should look forward to facing the Cubs in the post season. These last two weeks will be the longest of the year, and the Cubs must continue their good play as they still have two huge 4 game series in St. Louis and Milwaukee. Only time will tell, but things are looking good for the boys on the north side with October baseball on the horizon. As the playoffs are quickly approaching, the Cubs seem to be peaking on all levels. Their stars are beginning to shine, players like Addison Russell and Willson Contreras have returned from lengthy stints on the DL, and their starting pitching continues to produce quality starts and keep the team in the game. There are many questions that surround the Cubs if they make the playoffs, such as, how do they plan on playing Russell and Javy Baez at the same time? Where does Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ, Ben Zobrist and Albert Almora Jr. fit into the equation? How many catchers are the Cubs going to carry into the postseason? These are all questions that (hopefully) will be answered once the playoffs begin, and they’re all great “problems” to have. The one question that remains is what the Cubs plan to do with their starting rotation. Only a few months ago, the starting rotation for the Cubs was abysmal. Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta had ERA’s over 4, Kyle Hendricks missed a significant amount of time with a nagging hand/finger injury, and John Lackey was on the verge of getting released after posting a 5.20 first half ERA. I’m not sure if it was the All Star break, the signing of Jose Quintana or a combination of the two, but something changed with the starting rotation moving forward. Arrieta has been pitching like it’s the second half of 2015, class is back in session as Hendricks has returned from injury and is posting a 2.42 ERA, Lackey has improved drastically and while the home runs he gives up are concerning, it’s evident that he looks like a much better pitcher across the board. While being inconsistent, Jon Lester and Jose Quintana have the ability to make opposing batters look foolish on a regular basis as they are averaging 9.26 (Lester) and 10.57 (Quintana) strike outs per nine innings, respectfully. What does all this mean for the rotation moving forward? Personally, I think this is a great problem to have that can be a difference maker in the playoffs. I think an argument can be made for every starting pitcher we have to play in the playoffs, and I don’t see a reason why the Cubs can’t pull that off. The three pitchers that should be guaranteed a spot in the playoff rotation are Lester, Hendricks, and Arrieta assuming that his hamstring is okay. That fourth spot can be used a number of different ways, and I think a platoon of Lackey/Quintana could work very well. In his last twelve starts, Lackey has been able to go at least 5 innings with giving up 2 earned runs or less eight times. Quintana has been more hit or miss since joining the Cubs, as he has been able to do this six times in his last twelve starts. He is a safe bet to make it at least 5 innings, as he’s been unable to do this just three times the entire season. I don’t think you can go wrong with starting Lackey or Quintana for a potential game 4 of the NLDS and I see an argument for starting both pitchers. Hypothetically, if Lackey can go 5 innings while giving up only 2 runs and Quintana can come in as a reliever and take us into the 9th inning, I like our chances against just about any team. Perhaps Quintana can be our own Andrew Miller and be used for long relief? Who knows. The Cubs suddenly have five arms that can make a case for starting in playoff games, and while a 5-man playoff rotation is an unorthodox approach to winning a World Series, you can’t keep any of these pitchers off the roster. How Joe Maddon incorporates them into the rotation/bullpen isn’t up to me, but I can see where using Quintana as an Andrew Miller-like reliever could be very beneficial for the Cubs. Hopefully we’re able to have this debate as the postseason begins. |
Kyle MalzhanFounder who is an aspiring journalist who covers the Chicago Cubs daily. Archives
April 2020
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