Cubs Live
While spring training is just getting underway, expectations for the 2018 Chicago Cubs are World Series or bust after three straight NLCS appearances. Thanks to the successful offseason, they’re in a similar position as they were in 2016 and a common debate is if the 2018 Cubs can be even better than that legendary squad. I decided to take a deeper look and break it down.
Starting rotation: The 2016 pitchers for the Cubs had a historically great season. Their starting five of Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Jake Arrieta, John Lackey and Jason Hammel were able to stay healthy on a nearly miraculous level, as our fifth pitcher (Hammel) pitched the least amount of innings for the rotation and still put in 166.2 innings of work. Their ERAs consisted of 2.13 (Hendricks), 2.44 (Lester), 3.10 (Arrieta), 3.35 (Lackey) and 3.80 (Hammel) for an average ERA of 2.97. Their starting rotation compiled a 17.3 WAR and was led by two Cy Young finalists in Lester and Hendricks. Overall, there really weren’t any complaints with the 2016 rotation. The 2018 Pitchers may be more top heavy with the additions of Jose Quintana and Yu Darvish, but I don’t expect Lester to perform the way he did in 2016. The predictions for the 2018 season call for ERAs of 3.76 (Lester), 3.22 (Hendricks), 3.86 (Quintana), 3.98 (Darvish) and 4.38 (Tyler Chatwood) for an average of 3.84. Despite the significantly higher ERA projections, this rotation still projects for 16.2 WAR, which would be a great result. EDGE: 2016 Cubs Hitters: The 2016 Cubs had success from nearly every position player and saw career years from the majority of the players. Kris Bryant won the MVP, Anthony Rizzo saw a career high in OPS and batting average, and Addison Russell, Ben Zobrist and Dexter Fowler joined them as starters for the All-Star game. They were able to stay healthy throughout the season and the majority of the roster posted career highs in numerous categories. While this was an exceptional season for the Cubs, there’s no reason to think the 2018 Cubs can’t accomplish this. The only key offensive contributor from the 2016 Cubs that isn’t on the roster is Fowler, and we now have Ian Happ and Javy Baez playing everyday baseball. There’s no reason to think the players have peaked as they are all still so young, and players like Willson Contreras and Albert Almora should post numbers that are much greater than the 2016 campaign. I think the difference will be what Kyle Schwarber does, as he missed nearly the entire 2016 season. It’s obvious that Schwarber has lost a considerable amount of weight and is truly in the shape of his life, but we don’t know how that’ll translate to his ability to hit baseballs. Zobrist’s best days are behind him, but Baez being an everyday second baseman along with Almora and Happ splitting time in center field should more than make up for that regression. I see the 2018 hitters being just as good as the 2016 campaign, if not better. (slight) EDGE: 2018 Cubs Bullpen: The bullpen was the biggest flaw for the Cubs in 2016 until they acquired Aroldis Chapman. Their set up of Travis Wood/Mike Montgomery, Pedro Strop/Hector Rondon, Carl Edwards Jr and Chapman found great success. The 2018 bullpen looks different than 2016, but Montgomery, Strop and Edwards have all developed into better pitchers and I don’t expect that to stop in 2018. If Montgomery can go multiple innings and have his own 2016 Wood role, Justin Wilson pitches like pre-Cubs Justin Wilson and Brandon Morrow can become a true closer, this bullpen won’t be as flashy as 2016 but they could be deeper. (slight) EDGE: 2016 Cubs Final analysis: The Cubs aren’t predicted to win 103 games in 2018, but I don’t think that means they aren’t as good as the 2016 team. I miss Fowler, Lester’s production likely won’t be on the same level it was in 2016, and we don’t have a certified closer. All of that will hurt, but we have arguably the best rotation in baseball, an emerging stud in Ian Happ, a young collection of experienced position players that continue to improve and a healthy, skinny Schwarber who’s out to prove that 2017 was a fluke. I don’t expect them to win as many games, but their overall depth and experience is enough to put them in the same conversation as the 2016 Cubs and my expectation remains the same. World Series or bust.
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Kyle MalzhanFounder who is an aspiring journalist who covers the Chicago Cubs daily. Archives
April 2020
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