Cubs Live
By: Ryan Melson (RyanMelson1)
Baseball is fully back. With camp in full swing, there are several major free agents still available. The San Diego Padres signing of Eric Hosmer seems to have brought a little movement to the very cold free agent market. With several really good free agents left, do any of them make sense for the Cubs in 2018? Jon Heyman believes that Greg Holland will land with the Cubs, so lets try and make sense of what Holland could bring to the table and whether this could be a fit that makes sense for Holland and the Cubs. Holland’s Career Holland shined during his time in Kansas City by being a stalwart at the back end of the Royals bullpen. Holland was outrageously good in 2013 and 2014, making back-to-back All Star appearances. Holland had a disappointing 2015 season before having Tommy John surgery that required him to sit out all of 2016. Coming back in 2017, Holland joined the Colorado Rockies and the results were mixed. On the one hand, Holland did lead the league in saves. He appeared to be back to his dominant self in the first half of the season posting a 1.62 ERA with 43 strikeouts in 33.1 innings. However, the wheels fell off for Holland and the Rockies in the second half of the season. Holland posted a 6.38 ERA in the second half, only striking out 27 batters over 24 innings. In the second half, Holland’s WHIP spiked up to 1.333, his walk rate went up, and his saves dwindled. What happened in the second half? With Holland coming off of Tommy John surgery, he may have gotten fatigued as the season went on. Holland was used frequently in high leverage situations over the first half of the season, and that could have taken a toll on him. Another explanation could have been that he played at Coors Field and pitchers always seem to struggle with the elevation in Denver. This was not the case, though. Holland was actually better at home than he was on the road—posting a 3.34 ERA at home versus a 3.90 ERA on the road. Whatever the explanation is for Holland’s atrocious second half, he is a proven closer in the league. He has not been an elite closer since 2014, but Holland’s track record of success as a closer and in the postseason is unquestioned. It is yet to be determined whether Holland could be someone who can consistently be trusted at the back end of the bullpen in 2018. Does Holland Fit With The Cubs? Earlier this offseason, Holland turned down a qualifying offer of $17.4 million from the Rockies. Holland also had a player option of $15 million for the 2018 season with Rockies that he declined to exercise. By declining the qualifying offer and his player option, Holland was not merely trying to get out of Colorado. He perceived his market value to be much higher off of his past success. At this point, it seems as if Holland’s asking price and what teams value him at are miles apart. The 32 year old Holland likely wants something similar to the three year, $52 million deal his former teammate Wade Davis received from the Rockies earlier this offseason. Holland bet on himself this offseason, but he probably regrets making the decision not to accept his qualifying offer. Holland wanted long term assurance, but in reality he may have to settle for a mediocre one year deal. When Holland comes to grips with the realistic market value for him, the Cubs could be a one year destination. Holland would have the most spotlight to rehabilitate his value as a closer on the market by joining the Cubs, so it may intrigue him to take a smaller deal in order to get a larger one next offseason. This deal would have to be right for the Cubs, since they will not go over the luxury tax spending in 2018. The Cubs could get creative with the deal and offer a player option for a second year to Holland, only if he meets certain statistical markers in 2018. Holland would give the Cubs eight legitimate bullpen options. The Cubs would have the deepest pen in the league, and more than a handful of options to close out games. The Cubs would be very interested in Holland, but only if he is willing to take a fraction of what he originally desired.
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Kyle MalzhanFounder who is an aspiring journalist who covers the Chicago Cubs daily. Archives
April 2020
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