Cubs Live
By this time last year, the champagne had already been popped in the home clubhouse at Wrigley Field. The Cubs were celebrating the fruits of their labor in a dominant regular season made possible by a productive offense and historically great pitching staff. Starters were getting some well-deserved rest while the organization gave some other players time to showcase their talents before the 25-man playoff roster was finalized. While other teams across the league were still battling for playoff spots, it was smooth sailing for the Cubs, who were coasting towards the playoffs with nothing but World Series aspirations on their mind.
For the 2017 Cubs, the seas have been anything but calm. 151 games into a tumultuous season riddled with injuries, a first-half relationship with the .500 line, and maybe even a slight case of World Series Hangover, these young Cubs find themselves in unfamiliar territory: an actual battle for a playoff spot. Even in 2015, when the Cubs finished third in the NL Central, they held a cozy 13 game lead over the Giants for the second Wild Card spot at season’s end. This year, with eleven games left to play in the season, the Cubs’ magic number sits at 8 as they head into what is arguably their most important regular season series of the past decade: a four-game set against the Milwaukee Brewers. Sitting at 3.5 games behind the Cubs, the Brewers have enjoyed a surprising season reminiscent of the Cubs of yesteryear, quickly developing from a bottom-of-the-pack team to a serious playoff contender in the span of a single season. Despite boasting below-average hitting and fielding metrics, the Brewers have had the Cubs’ number in 2017 and currently hold an 8-7 advantage on the season, holding the Cubs to 4.4 runs per game, well below their season average of 5.1. Conversely, the Brewers have averaged 5.1 runs versus the Cubs against their season average of 4.6. While “score more runs and pitch better” sounds like a pretty simple game plan, there are several reasons why the Cubs could—and should—be able to dominate their series against the Brewers this weekend and close the door on the NL central race, if not shut it completely. And, as has been the story all year, those reasons begin and end with what has been the Cubs’ greatest weakness this season: pitching. Despite having far fewer wins than their 2016 counterparts, this year’s Cubs have actually had a more productive offense thus far, averaging 5.07 runs per game as opposed to 4.93 in 2016. On the other hand, the Cubs’ pitching staff as a whole has struggled in comparison, with their 2017 ERA of 4.07 nearly a full run higher than 2016’s mark of 3.15. Even amongst the historically great year for offense in baseball (home runs in particular), there’s no denying that pitching has been a major issue for the Cubs this year. Enter Jake Arrieta, 2015 Cy Young winner and the target of many a Cubs naysayer, a “once-elite” starter who many thought to be past his prime, washed up, a shadow of his former self, or any other variation of the phrase one could think of. A free agent after 2017, Arrieta has had nothing but everything to play for this season, but his efforts seemed to come up short nearly every time he took the mound. Then, just like everything else with these Cubs, everything seemed to click right around the All-Star break. Winning National League Pitcher of the Month honors in August, Arrieta boasts a 1.69 ERA and 7-2 record in July and August, once again looking like the imposing starter that blanked the Pirates in 2015’s Wild Card game. Gone were many of the concerns that came with the first half, and just like that, Jake Day was born once again. After missing a few starts to a right hamstring strain, Arrieta takes the mound in game one of this weekend’s four game series against the Brewers. Arrieta faces Zach Davies, the Brewers’ best active pitcher (due to the season-ending injury to Jimmy Nelson), and suddenly, there’s a playoff-esque atmosphere brewing in Miller Park—pun absolutely intended. Though he may be limited in innings or pitch count to ease him back into the rotation, Arrieta has every opportunity to be able to make a huge impact in this game and set the stage for the revamped and rehabbed offense that has welcomed the return of key players such as Willson Contreras and Addison Russell in the past couple weeks. Whether or not you’re a believer of momentum in baseball, the tone of this whole series rests on Arrieta’s shoulders. If Jake can lock in and shut down the less-than-stellar Milwaukee offense, this series—and the playoff race—could very well be over before the first game goes final. Besides the pitching turnaround from starters and relievers alike, the Cubs have plenty of other reasons to be excited for and optimistic about this series: they have a complete and healthy roster for the first time in months. They own one of the game’s best closers in Wade Davis. They, despite coming off a loss, are also coming fresh off their longest winning streak of the season. Things are finally clicking on all cylinders for this team. The World Series Hangover is gone and these Cubs are finally ready to party again. Besides, the champagne tastes a little better when you really have to work for it, doesn’t it?
1 Comment
NotTaylor
9/22/2017 11:11:20 am
Long time reader, first time commenter.
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Kyle MalzhanFounder who is an aspiring journalist who covers the Chicago Cubs daily. Archives
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